Two defining events point to how energy fortunes will continue to track

At the beginning of a new year, it is difficult to resist the temptation to get into predicting what we can expect in the 12 months to come. It is a mug’s game of course. The upside is that very few people remember what you forecast, so you can usually brag about what you got right without fear of being reminded of those things you got wrong.

Looking ahead at likely developments in the energy sector in 2026, there is a good chance of being on the ball (not crystal). At the end of last year, there were two defining events that surely point to how energy fortunes will continue to track around the world this coming year: one was the annual ADIPEC (Abu Dhabi Petroleum Exhibition and Conference) held on 3-6 November in Abu Dhabi, the other was the COP30 (the 30^th UN Climate Change Conference) held on 10-21 November in Belém, Brazil. The contrast between the two in ambition and outcome speaks volumes.

ADIPEC is the spectactularly impressive annual forum for the world’s energy business with an obvious bias towards the oil business. The 2025 statistics alone are astounding. According to the organising company, dmg (owned by a Daily Mail company and responsible for many other massive events in various industries), a record 239,709 attendees from 172 countries were gathered.

Just about every major oil/energy company participated including ADNOC, Aramco, BP, Chevron, CNPC, ExxonMobil, NNPC, Oxy, Petronas, Petrobras, Shell and TotalEnergies. From all accounts the mood was buoyant, in other words, the industry has got its mojo back, able to talk unapologetically about its contribution to a world that needs resilience and security through energy addition to achieve sustainable growth.

At the Opening Sultan Ahmed Al Jaber, managing director and group CEO of the Abu Dhabi National Oil Corporation (ADNOC) and the United Arab Emirates’ minister of industry and advanced technology, set the tone with quotable lines any speechwriter would be proud of.

He said: ‘With all the static around, it can be challenging to concentrate on what is genuinely material to our business. At times like these, my approach is straightforward: tune out the noise, track the signal. And the signal indicates that while near-term uncertainty is real, long-term demand remains robust. It advises us to balance cost discipline with capital investment, maintain a laser focus on efficiency, and invest in people, technology and AI.’

Unafraid to predict the future, Al Jaber estimated that $4 trillion in annual capital investment is required for grids, data centres and all energy sources up to 2040. ‘You can’t run tomorrow’s economy on yesterday’s grid,’ he said. ‘Here are the facts: electricity demand will continue to surge through 2040, with power for data centres increasing four-fold, 1.5 billion people migrating to cities, and more than two billion air conditioners being activated. Aviation will also expand, with the global airline fleet doubling from 25,000 to 50,000 aircraft. As a result, renewables will more than double by 2040; LNG will increase by 50%; jet fuel will grow by more than 30%, and oil will remain above 100 million barrels per day beyond 2040, increasingly utilised not just for mobility, but also for materials.’

Doug Burgum, US Secretary of the Interior and chairman of the the country’s National Energy Dominance Council, was also on the platform with a clear message. ‘We stand at a critical moment in time, where innovation, national security and prosperity intersect like never before,’ he said. ‘Energy has always underpinned national security and prosperity, but today those forces are converging in a way history has never seen.’

Burgum also provided a clue as to why the Trump Administration is so focused on maximising its energy resources. ‘For all of history, knowledge has been power. But today, for the first time, a kilowatt of electricity can be converted directly into intelligence. We now live in a world where we can manufacture intelligence. That is a first in human history … I’ve stopped calling them data centres. These are factories manufacturing intelligence. This manufactured intelligence is a general-purpose technology, capable of transforming medicine, education and every industry, including ours.’

The electricity theme was later picked up by Patrick Pouyanné, chairman and CEO, TotalEnergies. He told a session ‘This transition is not about less energy; it is about more energy with fewer emissions. The planet needs more energy, full stop. And when we move from thinking in terms of oil and gas to thinking in terms of energy, that still means more oil and more gas, because they remain at the core of the system. But increasingly, the energy everybody is looking at now is electricity.’

ADIPEC will return to Abu Dhabi on 2-5 November 2026 when, according to dmg, it will ‘continue its mission to unite the global energy sector and drive system-wide transformation for a secure, inclusive and sustainable future.’ But the event, however momentous, is unlikely to attract anything like the coverage accorded to the COP meetings, indicative of the energy transition dilemma.

COP (Conference of the Parties) summits, initiated by the 1992 United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change began in 1995 in Berlin as the most significant inter-governmental initiative to combat climate change. Over three decades it has set out some important internationally agreed statements of intent. Compliance has been another matter.

The Kyoto Protocol (1997) was the first landmark event. It called for reducing the emission of six greenhouse gases in 41 countries plus the European Union to 5.2% below 1990 levels during the ‘commitment period’ 2008–12. The Paris Agreement (2015) at COP21 has proved the most enduring reference: it is a legally binding accord to hold global temperature increase to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels and pursue efforts to limit it to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. Around 195 countries have signed up but the US has pulled out with President Trump referring to the whole exercise as a ‘con job’ or ‘hoax’. The Glasgow Pact (2021) addressed accelerated phasing down of coal power; Sharm El-Sheikh, (2022) established a Loss and Damage Fund to help vulnerable nations deal with the impact of climate-related destruction; and COP28 in Dubai (2023) finally agreed after 28 years of negotiations a somewhat unconvincing commitment to a Transition from Fossil Fuels (2023).

COP30 made the headlines, but in all the wrong ways and even before it got underway. The choice of the Amazonian venue of Belém by the host country Brazil was obviously political, apparently reflecting President Lula’s wish to focus on the important role of the Amazon in climate stability. But the move exposed the city’s inadequate infrastructure and accommodation facilities to cater for the more than 56,000 delegates attending. The siting of the event also attracted protests throughout the proceedings from local indigenous people, angry that not enough was being done to protect the region from the impact of mining and agribusiness. Optics were not improved when, on the last day but one, a fire broke out at the venue disrupting already fractious negotiations.

Attendance at COP30 was impressive: 194 out of the 198 UN-registered countries participated. But the notable absentee was the US, consistent with the Trump Administration’s sceptical view of climate change mitigation measures, effectively undermining any meaningful global agreements on decarbonisation measures.

Environment groups expressed dismay at the 1600 ‘fossil fuel’ lobbyists attending, a significant number of whom were advocating for carbon capture and storage. According to the Centre for International Environmental Law, the CCS proponents are exploiting the boom in AI and the associated surge in energy demand to cement further fossil fuel expansion, using carbon capture promises to mask the devastating climate impact of fossil fuels.

Like so many COP conferences, this latest edition met with obstruction and obfuscation when it came to drafting any action plans, leaving media channels non-plussed in their reporting. More that 80 countries had gone along with President Lula’s call for a road map to transition away from fossil fuels. This was blocked by Saudia Arabia, Russia and other oil-dependent nations. Colombia backed by some 90 other countries will try to progress the road map idea in a meeting outside the UN process next April. A proposed road map to end deforestation is also back to the drawing board with new proposals being prepared for COP31 in Turkey; however, the meeting did witness the launch of the Tropical Forest Forever Facility to protect tropical forests with significant funding promised.

There were other positives from COP30. These included tripling of the per annum finance to be paid by rich nations for adaptation to climate change in poorer countries, but the deadline to reach the target was extended from 2030 to 2035 and will be way short of the annual $300 billion once talked about. There was recognition for the first time of carbon trade measures such as the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism. A just transition mechanism was agreed to protect the rights of all peoples including workers, women and indigenous communities.

The conference’s grudging acknowledgement of the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report as the ‘best available science’ to be reviewed along with those ‘produced in developing countries and relevant reports from regional groups and institutions’ hinted at a scepticism previously absent.

No wonder Simon Stiell, UN climate change executive secretary, qualified his statement at the closing plenary session that ‘COP30 showed that climate cooperation is alive and kicking, keeping humanity in the fight for a livable planet.’ He felt compelled to add: ‘I’m not saying we’re winning the climate fight. But we are undeniably still in it, and we are fighting back.’

We can only guess how that will transpire in 2026.

COP30 made the headlines, but in all the wrong ways.