Is the geophysical sector ready for an upturn?

"Are we ready for an upturn by 2027?"

Will Ashby, Executive Vice President of Business Development at TGS:

"We've been investing against the cycle, and that's going to pay off. We look at both the macro drivers and what we hear and see at the coalface. The IEA has changed its peak oil prediction from 2030 to 2050. The forecast now only goes to 2050. Reserve replacement has averaged 75% over the last five years. We're starting to see different kinds of conversations with our customers, and we're also seeing governments taking steps to stimulate recovery by increasing spending on geophysical data. I met with Petronas MPM last week, and it now has a strategy to encourage more investment in data acquisition. A lot of positive things are happening that could drive an upturn, perhaps by 2027. The question is: are we ready for it?"

He added a note of caution.

"I'm a numbers guy, and seismic spend is still down 60% from its 2014 peak. There are plenty of positive signals, but spending hasn't started to increase in 2026. In our view, we won't see a real uptick until perhaps 2027."

Jean-Cédric Prouvost, SVP Business, Marketing and Strategy, Sercel:

"We have good solutions to bring. The only caveat is whether the industry has the capacity to scale up quickly."

Richard Corfield, Vice President, Imaging Technology, bp:

"We shouldn't take it for granted that we'll be ready. It will require partnership and hard work to make sure we are. We're working on technologies to reduce costs, and we'll be carrying out more surveys across more of our fields."

Karyna Rodriguez, Vice President, Global New Ventures, Searcher Seismic:

"In some ways we're already in the upturn. I've never seen better-looking data than we're seeing today. The subsalt data we're producing with FWI and OBN, together with the fast-track data we're generating in the Orange Basin offshore Namibia and South Africa, and in the Pelotas Basin offshore Brazil, is remarkable. The speed and quality of what we can now produce is incredibly impressive."

Andrea Lovatini, VP Exploration Data and GeoSolutions, SLB:

"There is some fluctuation in drilling activity, but we're seeing growth in a number of areas. There's increasing acreage capture, more multi-client licensing and significant interest in combining OBN and FWI with faster image turnaround. Acreage capture will translate into seismic activity and drilling. We are already on the rising side of the upturn. All the ingredients are there. We're ready, and we're eager."

AI's growing role

Artificial intelligence featured heavily throughout the discussion. How is it helping companies improve acquisition, processing and interpretation while increasing efficiency and reducing turnaround times?

Karyna Rodriguez:

"The objective is to identify accumulations by training the machine. We're identifying shallow gas anomalies and using legacy datasets from around the world to build these algorithms. AI can recognise fans and geobodies, and it's helping us accelerate quality control."

Andrea Lovatini:

"AI is enabling energy companies to move in and out of acreage much more quickly. In the past, companies often held acreage for years without doing very much. Economically, that's no longer possible. Technology has caught up. Companies can now reprocess and analyse data much faster, allowing them to evaluate opportunities shortly after signing MOUs. Time from first evaluation to first well and ultimately first production has been significantly compressed. Automated and AI-driven drilling is already having a dramatic impact, and we're only at the beginning."

Will Ashby:

"AI is already reducing our cycle times while improving quality and effectiveness. For example, we can combine information from our data and finance databases to analyse which datasets customers have licensed, in which basins and at what price. That has improved our business processes.

It's also helping us monitor vessel noise, optimise fuel consumption and develop intelligent maintenance schedules. Instead of replacing equipment every two years, we're gaining a much better understanding of equipment performance and deterioration.

We're also using AI to improve seismic imaging, helping our oil and gas customers reach drilling decisions more quickly and with less risk through seismic foundation models and AI-enabled workflows. We have the data needed to train those models."

Investment in technology

Has AI encouraged greater investment in technology and research?

Will Ashby:

"There has to be a business case. Our industry is littered with examples of expensive technologies that ultimately disappointed. We've also developed outstanding technologies, only to lose contracts because the lowest price won. We need a different approach.

I give bp credit here. It has been very open to collaborative R&D projects. We've worked together on autonomous vessels. However, the major oil companies also need to commit once new technology has been commercialised and proven, so suppliers can generate a return on their investment.

This is the first EAGE Annual Conference in several years where I've seen genuinely exciting technologies that can help pull us out of this downturn. At TGS, the combination of our Gemini Enhanced Frequency Source, salvo shooting, elastic FWI and sparse-node acquisition is delivering significant advances."

Driving down costs

Andrea Lovatini:

"Whenever nodes are discussed, the first question is always whether they're more expensive or take longer. Much of the investment at SLB and elsewhere is focused on maintaining quality while reducing costs, making OBN increasingly competitive with streamer and WAZ acquisition. In complex geological settings, nodes are the right solution, and we believe costs can eventually approach those of semi-WAZ. The ambition is ultimately to reach the cost of narrow-WAZ, or even 2D acquisition. AI and high-performance computing will help us get there."

Jean-Cédric Prouvost:

"Delivering excellent data isn't enough. We've also focused heavily on operational efficiency to make acquisition more affordable. AI allows us to analyse vast amounts of operational data, identify patterns and reduce costs for our customers."

Karyna Rodriguez:

"Cost remains a constraint that we need to address. Quality cannot be compromised. We have to work closely with clients to understand exactly what they need and determine the most efficient way to deliver it."

Can the industry scale up?

Richard Corfield:

"Our seismic spending has increased, particularly in exploration. However, capital discipline remains critical. Every pound we invest in seismic needs to support much larger investments in drilling. We're seeing signs of an uptick, but it's a measured one, and that's in everyone's interest."

Jean-Cédric Prouvost:

"The question is how we acquire better data faster and more economically. After a decade of cost-cutting, does the industry still have the financial capacity to reinvest in equipment, mobilise capital and launch new acquisition programmes?"

Karyna Rodriguez:

"Capital constraints have delayed many developments. We need to be creative and resilient. We're already seeing considerable acreage uptake by operators, and we're exploring different ways to respond."

Andrea Lovatini:

"Scaling up will require partnerships between seismic companies to share investment risks and combine technologies that no single provider can offer alone. We also need stronger collaboration with governments and academia."

Richard Corfield:

"I couldn't agree more about partnerships. bp has a long history of working closely with many of the companies represented here."

Will Ashby:

"There are real challenges ahead. Over the last decade, the supply side of our industry has changed fundamentally. SLB and Viridien sold their vessels to Shearwater, which now faces its own challenges. TGS acquired Magseis Fairfield, Spectrum, PGS and the assets of ION Geophysical. Dolphin and Polarcus disappeared, and Fugro exited the market.

Global 3D seismic vessel capacity has fallen by around 70%. There were roughly 65 vessels in 2014. Today, TGS operates seven, Shearwater has seven, and there are only a handful of Chinese vessels.

An even greater concern is streamer capacity. PGS needed to replace ageing streamers, and TGS is now undertaking a multi-year capital investment programme to do exactly that. Shearwater is using streamers from stacked vessels, so it should be in a reasonable position.

OBN is better placed because barriers to entry are lower, although the real barrier is the expertise needed to deliver improved performance using HPC in a world where AI itself demands enormous computing power.

We've also lost a huge number of experienced people from the industry. Do service companies still have the workforce needed to deliver? Do operators such as bp have the people and data capabilities to work at the speed now required?"

Richard Corfield:

"I share those concerns about the talent pipeline, and AI won't be a silver bullet. At bp we have a sustainable investment model, and one area I'm particularly optimistic about is autonomy. I think there are real opportunities there."

Summary

The panel agreed that the foundations for a recovery are increasingly visible. Growing government support, renewed licensing activity, improved seismic imaging technologies and accelerating adoption of AI all point towards stronger demand from 2027 onwards.

However, there was also broad recognition that the industry's ability to respond remains uncertain. Years of consolidation, reduced investment, shrinking vessel fleets and the loss of experienced personnel have left the sector leaner than during previous cycles.

The consensus was that success will depend not only on technological innovation but also on closer collaboration between operators, contractors, technology providers, governments and academia. If the anticipated upturn materialises, the industry's greatest challenge may not be creating demand—but having the capacity, talent and partnerships needed to meet it.