DNV’s 10th annual Energy Transition Outlook forecasts the global energy system to 2060. For geoscientists, it points to a changing portfolio of subsurface work: hydrocarbons remain significant, while geothermal energy and carbon storage develop at different rates and face distinct technical and commercial constraints.
Fossil fuels decline, but remain part of the energy mix
DNV forecasts the fossil fuel share of global primary energy to fall from around 80% today to 51% by 2050. By 2060, coal demand is projected to have fallen by more than 80%, oil by 50% and natural gas by almost 25%. Gas is expected to retain a larger share of the energy mix than oil and coal combined.
Gas also remains important for balancing electricity grids, although its share of power generation is forecast to fall from 23% to 8% by 2050. DNV expects Middle Eastern producers to supply around 40% of global oil production in 2050, down from the 50% projected in its 2025 outlook.
The forecast describes a gradual transition rather than an immediate end to hydrocarbon activity, with different trajectories for oil, gas and coal.
Geothermal growth brings new resource and cost challenges
DNV forecasts geothermal power capacity to rise from 23 GW in 2026 to 95 GW by 2060. Generation would triple over that period, but still account for around 0.4% of global electricity.
The report expects geothermal’s levelised cost of electricity to rise sharply in the near term as developers move towards more expensive, deeper resources, with few shallow sites remaining available. From the 2040s, enhanced geothermal systems (EGS) are forecast to gain share as drilling advances and costs fall. EGS could broaden the resource base by targeting hot rock where natural permeability is insufficient. Hydrothermal systems are expected to remain important in areas with favourable geology.
For geoscientists, these developments bring reservoir characterisation, resource assessment and subsurface engineering into a growing geothermal sector.
CCS remains essential, but forecasts are lower
DNV has reduced its long-term CCS forecast by 15% compared with last year’s outlook. It still projects capture and storage to reach 120 MtCO₂ per year by 2030 and 2.6 Gt per year by 2060, addressing emissions that are difficult to eliminate through electrification or fuel switching.
However, CCS is projected to capture less than 10% of remaining manufacturing emissions by 2060, with more than a third of that manufacturing uptake in Europe. DNV notes that projects can be delayed or scaled back where finance, CO₂ transport and storage infrastructure are not in place. Geological appraisal and storage characterisation therefore remain part of a wider delivery challenge.
Taken together, the outlook points to subsurface expertise being applied across established hydrocarbon systems and emerging uses of the subsurface. Its projections are DNV’s “most likely” forecast, not a guarantee of future outcomes.
Interest in Energy Transition and what this means for subsurface professionals? Join us at the event GET2026, 1-5 November 2026 in Hannover, Germany.
GET is the premier event worldwide that highlights the relevance and application of geoscience and engineering disciplines in meeting the challenges and opportunities of energy transition. Visit the event website for full programme details and how to register.
