If you are fearful of doomscrolling, then do not read on. After all, who wants to consider how water across the globe faces increasingly concerning issues such as scarcity, fighting over access rights, and environmental hazards (e.g., pollution, droughts, uncontrollable flooding), all of which threaten to overshadow energy security at the top of the geopolitical and economic agenda.
Obviously, the appalling disaster in Nepal is on everyone’s mind. Over a thousand people have been confirmed dead and thousands more are unaccounted for across Nepal and Tibet following massive flash floods and mudslides focused on the Trishuli and Lhende Khola river systems. A glacial collapse and landslide is believed to have initiated the catastrophe, with early scientific opinion attributing the destabilisation to accelerated Himalayan ice loss from warming temperatures.
Longtime readers of First Break may recall a 2006 article Role of geophysics in glacial hazard assessment (Vol 24, 8) by Prof John Reynolds warning of just this sort of eventuality in the Himalayas and recounting how geophysical methods could help understanding of the lurking danger as a result of climate change. In 2020, EAGE launched its Hydrogeophysics Technical Community to advance ‘the use of geophysics to explore, manage, and monitor groundwater, land-use, and natural hazards—especially under changing climate conditions’. EAGE’s 2026 Near Surface Geoscience Conference and Exhibition, held in Thessaloniki, Greece, in September hosted the Third Conference on Hydrogeophysics. All this indicates a discipline of growing importance within hydrology, as well as it should be.
'The wider context is scary.'
Let’s face it, the wider context is scary, particularly the ‘running out of water’ scenarios. The landmark publication in January of Global Water Bankruptcy: Living Beyond Our Hydrological Means in the Post-Crisis Era from the United Nations University Institute for Water, Environment and Health (UNU-INWEH), the UN’s so-called ‘Water Think Tank,' provides pretty irrefutable evidence that the world’s water account is in deficit; in other words, the water reserves that nature provides are no longer being fully replenished.
Water stress prevails on much of the planet. This is the condition where freshwater resources in a region are insufficient to meet the demands of its population, economy, and ecosystems, either due to physical water scarcity, inadequate infrastructure, poor water quality, or institutional failures in water management. The implications for national economies, agriculture and food supply are serious. Some experts conjecture that large movements of population to find more viable living conditions may soon become reality. Various sources reiterate the claim that 4 billion people, half of the world’s population, experience water stress for at least a month a year. There is little expectation that things will rapidly improve.
The most recent assessment from the World Resources Institute suggests that 25 countries face extremely high water stress annually, using over 80% of their renewable water supplies. The top 15 worst-affected countries are the Middle East countries (including Egypt and Libya), Cyprus and Iran plus Botswana in Africa, many of which rely on desalination plants for fresh water, a solution with many drawbacks in terms of reliance on fossil fuel, toxic waste disposal and transport costs.
Co-hosted by Senegal and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), the UN Water Conference is scheduled for 8–10 December 2026 in Abu Dhabi. The conference aims to accelerate the implementation of Sustainable Development Goal 6 (SDG 6), defined as ensuring the availability and sustainable management of clean water and sanitation for all by 2030.
The UN estimates that on the current trajectory, this goal will not be achieved until at least 2049. Industrialised countries cannot afford to be complacent. Last summer 71% of England and the whole of Wales experienced drought status, pushing the water grid to its limit and causing the worst harvest on record for staple crops. Fingers have been pointed at the longtime denationalised Thames Water, in debt to the tune of £20 billion, with a record number of fines for polluting waterways, failure to invest in ageing infrastructure, plus exorbitant executive payouts and company dividends.
European countries such as Spain, Portugal, Italy, Greece, Malta, and Cyprus all had their drastic stories to tell. Adding to longstanding EU water strategies, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen in September launched a European Water initiative to be followed this month by a new European Framework for Climate Resilience, which will identify ‘100 of the most vulnerable territories in Europe’.
In North America, the US Environmental Protection Agency estimates that US drinking-water systems will require a $625 billion investment over 20 years. In Canada, publicly owned water infrastructure had an estimated replacement value of $963 billion in 2022, with $1065 billion in poor or very poor condition.
'Sinister developments in the pipeline.'
There are some sinister developments in the pipeline, AI for one. A new UNU-INWEH report Environmental Cost of AI’s Energy Use: Carbon, Water and Land Footprints, suggests that by 2030 the global data centres powering artificial intelligence are projected to consume 945 terawatt-hours of electricity. This is nearly triple the combined annual electricity use of Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Nigeria—countries collectively home to more than 650 million people. The associated water footprint will equal the basic annual domestic water needs of all 1.3 billion people in Sub-Saharan Africa, and their land footprint will exceed 14,500 km2, roughly twice the Jakarta metropolitan area, home to more than 32 million people.
Disputes over water access are on the increase. In the US, the argument between seven states over the diminishing water availability from the Colorado River is becoming ugly. More seriously, violence over water access worldwide is growing. According to the Pacific Institute, 420 events were reported in 2024, nearly a 20% increase over 2023, and a 78% increase over 2022, compared with 24 such incidents in 2000.
Geoscientific methods cannot exactly come to the rescue. They do offer a growing number of roles in hydrology inspired by developments in AI, remote sensing satellite networks and high-performance computing. According to one review, a new paradigm of real-time, data-intensive, and global-scale hydrology is in prospect. That’s good news in the fraught world of water.
Views expressed in Crosstalk are solely those of the author, Andrew McBarnet, EAGE Editor Emeritus. He can be contacted at andrew@andrewmcbarnet.com.
