‘Geopolitical developments, including the Iran conflict, could have a significant impact on the longer-term prospects for offshore wind as energy security is pushed to the top of political agendas,’ said the report.
‘Geopolitical developments, including the Iran conflict, could have a significant impact on the longer-term prospects for offshore wind as energy security is pushed to the top of political agendas,’ said the report.
It shows that the global offshore wind forecast for installed capacity in 2030 has fallen by 17% year-on-year, with expected capacity outside China reduced from 145GW to 120GW. Forecasts for 2030 have not changed since last quarter though, due to increased optimism following the UK’s Allocation Round 7.
This analysis finds a 16% drop in 2040 expectations from Q1 2025 and a 25% drop from Q1 2024 expectations. Meanwhile, 2026 shows signs of improvement, with many projects progressing to later stages of the pipeline.
Offtake awards have been boosted by a globally record-breaking Allocation Round 7 in the UK, which yielded 8.4 GW of contracts. This alone makes 2026 the fifth-largest year on record in Q1 and it could become the biggest year for offtake, with 19.6GW, compared to 2024’s 19.1GW.
Site awards in Q1 2026 have been slow, with only Norway’s Utsira Nord (1 GW) awarding so far this year. Activity is expected to increase significantly over the remainder of the year, with up to another 1.7GW of floating projects and 17.4GW of bottom-fixed projects expected. This is, however, down 79% from the peak in 2022.
With only 280MW of projects reaching Commercial Operation Date (COD) so far this year, it has been a slow start, said TGS. Despite this, TGS said it is expecting the second-largest volume of CODs on record at 17GW, with 10.3GW outside of China, taking globally installed capacity up to 103.4GW by the end of 2026.
