Rystad Energy’s 2020 annual global energy outlook shows that the Covid-19 downturn will halt exploration efforts in remote offshore areas and as a result reduce the world’s recoverable oil by around 282 billion barrels.
Rystad Energy’s 2020 annual global energy outlook shows that the Covid-19 downturn will halt exploration efforts in remote offshore areas and as a result reduce the world’s recoverable oil by around 282 billion barrels.
The world’s remaining recoverable oil resources have therefore decreased to 1.903 billion barrels, 42% of which are in OPEC territory, with the remaining 58% located outside the alliance.
‘Non-OPEC countries account for the lion’s share of ‘lost’ recoverable resources with more than 260 billion barrels of undiscovered oil now more likely to be left untouched, especially in remote exploratory areas,’ said Rystad Energy’s Head of Analysis, Per Magnus Nysveen.
OPEC countries are much more resilient to the current crisis and will only lose a fraction compared to their non-OPEC counterparts such as the US (-49 billion barrels) and Russia (-31 billion barrels).
‘OPEC countries are expected to lose 21 billion barrels of reserves potential as the negative developments in Venezuela and Iran outweigh the increased strength and reserves potential of core OPEC countries in the Arab Gulf region,’ Nysveen added.
In the US it expects lower upstream activity in shale acreage and less exploration in the Gulf of Mexico, decreasing recoverable resources by 49 billion barrels.
In Canada high-cost oil sands reserves will be left in the ground (14 billion barrels).
In Mexico there will be reduced exploration for deepwater and shale oil reserves.
In Brazil, more pre-salt reserves will likely be left in the ground.
In Russia Arctic offshore oil reserves will be left in the ground, lowering oil reserves by 31 billion barrels.
Norway will also have to leave more reserves in the ground in the Barents Sea.
In Nigeria potential reserves are expected to fall further by 6 billion barrels.
With no imminent peace in sight in Libya, production potential will fall by a further 4 billion barrels.
Despite positive news on oil policy reforms in Algeria, shale exploration potential is expected to fall by 7 billion barrels of oil.
In offshore Angola there will be less deepwater exploration as peak oil demand comes sooner due to Covid-19.
As the clear winner of the OPEC+ agreement, Saudi Arabia is expected to add 25 billion barrels to future production potential despite peak oil coming sooner.
China’s shale exploration is expected to be reduced.
In Iran, the risk of prolonged sanctions reduces recoverable reserves potential by 18 billion barrels.
Reduced exploration in new basins is expected in Australia.
