World oil price could rise to $380 by 2050, Lukoil predicts

World oil prices could hit $380 per barrel in 2050 according to one scenario published in Lukoil’s Global Energy Perspectives to 2050 report. 

The report, which considered Evolution, Equilibrium and Transformation scenarios, outlined that high carbon prices and inflation were projected to lead to $380 per barrel oil prices in the Transformation scenario, with prices in the Equilibrium and Evolution scenarios forecast at $197 per barrel and $128 per barrel, respectively. 

Lukoil’s report notes that the Evolution scenario assumes the development of global energy markets within the framework of the current international energy policy and national programmes, considering existing technological capabilities. The Equilibrium scenario is said to be based on a balance between achieving climate goals and economic development and the Transformation scenario is said to assume a radical restructuring of global energy and industry as well as carbon neutrality of the leading economies by 2050. 

‘In our outlook we estimate three possible decarbonization trajectories, including the Transformation scenario, which assumes aggressive phase out of hydrocarbons and the most efficient and rapid development of renewable energy and electric transport,’ president of Lukoil, V.U. Alekperov said. 

‘At the same time, according to our estimates the development of global energy is currently going according to the Evolution scenario, which does not achieve the goals of the Paris Agreement,’ he added. 

‘In this regard, it is necessary to focus even more on decarbonizing production, creating incentives for the development of renewable energy, other low-carbon technologies and energy efficiency. It is important to minimize the possible negative consequences of an accelerated energy transition, including a significant increase in the cost of energy resources,’ Alekperov added. 

Lukoil’s Global Energy Perspectives to 2050 report was presented in Moscow on December 17.