CO2 from fossil fuels up 5% this year says Global Carbon Project report

Global carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from fossil fuels and cement have rebounded by 4.9% this year after a Covid-related dip of 5.4% in 2020, according to a Global Carbon Project report. 

The Global Carbon Project estimates that fossil emissions in 2021 will reach 36.4 billion tonnes of CO2 (GtCO2), only 0.8% below their pre-pandemic high of 36.7GtCO2 in 2019. 

Dr Glen Peters, research director at the Center for International Climate Research (CICERO), said the researchers ‘were expecting some sort of rebound in 2021’, but that it was ‘bigger than expected’. He added: ‘You could say the recovery packages have delivered more in emissions than we were hoping – a little bit too dirty in the recovery packages and not enough low-carbon expenditure.’ 

The GCP study, which is not yet peer-reviewed, is the 16th annual ‘global carbon budget’. The budget also reveals that China and India both surpassed their 2019 emission peaks in 2021. Chinese emissions grew by 5.5% between 2019 and 2021, while Indian emissions grew by 4.4%. 

‘However, oil emissions remain around 6% below 2019 levels and this persistent reduction is one of the main reasons 2021 emissions did not set a new record,’ says the report. 

While fossil emissions are expected to return to near-record levels, the study also reassesses historical emissions from land-use change, revealing that global CO2 output overall may have been effectively flat over the past decade. 

Previous GCP data showed global CO2 emissions increasing by an average of 1.4 GtCO2 per year between 2011 and 2019 – prior to Covid-related emissions declines. The new revised dataset shows that global CO2 emissions were essentially flat – increasing by only 0.1GtCO2 per year from 2011 and 2019. When 2020 and 2021 are included, the new GCP data actually shows slightly declining global emissions over the past decade.